Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1866 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1866 FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1870 FLL 18:20 → MDW 20:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1866 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:55	MDW 07:55	4%	1%	0.9%	96%
WN 1869 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:15	MDW 12:15	14%	3%	0.8%	80%
WN 1870 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 18:20	MDW 20:25	40%	12%	1.1%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON