tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 673 Delta Flight history → FLL 14:47 MSP 17:39 15% 8% 0.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 2h 20m Chicago MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869 6h 50m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 2h 06m Dulles IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic 7h 31m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874 55m St Louis STL 08:15 → MSP 09:45WN 3961 5h 05m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 5h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165 1h 35m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 44m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 5h 58m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 24m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697 8h 10m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 24m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 9h 46m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:57 → PHL 18:53AA 1855 56m Philadelphia PHL 19:49 → MSP 22:01AA 5460 · flown by PSA 7h 04m 71% 56%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 18:20 → MDW 20:25WN 1870 1h 25m Chicago MDW 21:50 → MSP 23:20WN 4085 6h 00m 73% 53%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 20:25 → BNA 21:50WN 1852 55m Nashville BNA 22:45 → MSP 00:55 +1WN 968 5h 30m 65% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON