Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 30–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1871 FLL 14:20 → MSY 15:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest B6 2823 FLL 21:16 → MSY 22:24 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1871 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 14:20	MSY 15:25	30%	10%	0.8%	71%
B6 1823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:50	MSY 15:57	34%	16%	1.4%	55%
B6 2823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:16	MSY 22:24	39%	23%	9.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON