Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 05m Houston	HOU 07:35 → OAK 09:30WN 2056	7h 30m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	9h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	80%	73%
Southwest Details →	FLL 08:50 → DEN 11:00WN 4264	2h 15m Denver	DEN 13:15 → OAK 14:50WN 3563	9h 00m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	FLL 18:20 → MDW 20:25WN 1870	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → OAK 00:15 +1WN 4042	8h 55m	69%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON