Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 752 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 752 FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 863 FLL 21:05 → ORD 23:44 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 752 United Flight history →	FLL 07:02	ORD 09:30	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:43	ORD 12:15	18%	8%	1.4%	69%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	20%	8%	1.5%	66%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	FLL 12:15	ORD 14:46	20%	8%	0.9%	73%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	22%	9%	1.1%	52%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	26%	10%	2.1%	71%
AA 2440 American Flight history →	FLL 17:33	ORD 20:16	37%	11%	1.4%	32%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	37%	20%	6.3%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON