tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1800 at 18:45, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1800 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:45 ORF 21:04 34% 17% 3.0% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 1h 51m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 5h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 6h 05m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396 1h 45m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → ORF 11:40WN 1070 5h 15m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925 6h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:12 → JFK 13:59DL 1422 2h 01m New York JFK 16:00 → ORF 17:56DL 5856 · flown by Republic 6h 44m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50WN 4638 1h 10m Nashville BNA 12:00 → ORF 14:50WN 4688 5h 15m 95% 83%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 08:00 → BWI 10:30WN 1651 3h 35m Baltimore BWI 14:05 → ORF 15:05WN 1037 7h 05m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → FLL 10:40 → PHL 13:31AA 1850 2h 01m Philadelphia PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52AA 4749 · flown by Republic 6h 12m 94% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 12:04 → LGA 15:04AA 2490 47m New York LGA 15:51 → ORF 17:41AA 4471 · flown by Republic 5h 37m 69% 55%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 14:15 → BWI 16:45WN 4355 50m Baltimore BWI 17:35 → ORF 18:35WN 1039 4h 20m 66% 49%
AmericanDetails → FLL 16:26 → DFW 18:39AA 2014 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:34 → ORF 23:38AA 2587 7h 12m 67% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON