Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 444 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 444 FLL 06:18 → PHL 09:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4440 FLL 21:45 → PHL 00:39 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 444 American Flight history →	FLL 06:18	PHL 09:06	5%	2%	1.0%	95%
AA 794 American Flight history →	FLL 07:10	PHL 10:01	6%	3%	1.0%	100%
AA 1850 American Flight history →	FLL 10:40	PHL 13:31	13%	4%	1.1%	91%
AA 695 American Flight history →	FLL 14:39	PHL 17:35	22%	11%	1.2%	57%
AA 1855 American Flight history →	FLL 15:57	PHL 18:53	28%	12%	1.4%	52%
AA 3247 American Flight history →	FLL 20:01	PHL 22:53	31%	12%	4.2%	57%
B6 2276 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:24	PHL 17:13	35%	14%	1.2%	74%
F9 2932 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:09	PHL 16:05	39%	15%	1.3%	66%
B6 746 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:36	PHL 22:29	40%	20%	3.3%	48%
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	42%	19%	4.0%	68%
F9 4440 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:45	PHL 00:39	48%	19%	5.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON