tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 441 American Flight history → FLL 17:07 PHX 18:44 29% 11% 1.2% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:15 → MCI 07:15WN 1540 3h 25m Kansas City MCI 10:40 → PHX 11:25WN 4651 9h 10m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 59m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 38m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:10 → PHL 10:01AA 794 1h 04m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 646 8h 59m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 30m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 51m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 10h 50m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → FLL 06:55 → EWR 09:59UA 2603 1h 25m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 9h 44m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800 3h 41m Los Angeles LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest 10h 28m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 38m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06F9 1973 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:23 → PHX 22:59F9 4655 7h 09m 68% 42%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 20:10 → HOU 21:45WN 4583 50m Houston HOU 22:35 → PHX 23:20WN 2066 6h 10m 44% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON