Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1196 at 18:35, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1196 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	PVD 21:44	41%	13%	1.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	7h 06m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → PVD 12:05WN 4628	5h 40m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03DL 3961 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	97%	86%
United Details →	FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169	1h 21m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → PVD 14:05UA 6262 · flown by Mesa	5h 25m	98%	85%
United Details →	FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → PVD 14:25UA 4703 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	98%	85%
American Details →	FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53AA 2087	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 13:44 → PVD 15:48AA 2318	8h 04m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	6h 33m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	FLL 08:00 → BWI 10:30WN 1651	2h 45m Baltimore	BWI 13:15 → PVD 14:35WN 823	6h 35m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	5h 29m	68%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON