Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 726 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day B6 726 FLL 08:28 → RDU 10:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 2626 FLL 19:25 → RDU 21:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 726 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:28	RDU 10:32	16%	6%	1.0%	74%
DL 1018 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:00	RDU 17:12	24%	10%	1.3%	75%
B6 2926 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	RDU 13:04	25%	9%	1.2%	80%
B6 2626 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:25	RDU 21:34	37%	18%	2.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON