tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:33, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 356 Delta Flight history → FLL 08:20 SEA 11:49 9% 3% 1.0% 81%
AS 517 Alaska Flight history → FLL 18:30 SEA 21:59 36% 11% 1.7% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 1h 56m Dulles IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241 10h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 9h 50m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648 10h 02m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 10m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165 1h 30m New York JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 10h 44m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 33m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 11h 29m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 9h 53m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752 4h 00m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 12h 07m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 14:39 → PHL 17:35AA 695 46m Philadelphia PHL 18:21 → SEA 21:35AA 2522 9h 56m 71% 49%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → SEA 21:10UA 360 8h 40m 71% 47%
AmericanDetails → FLL 19:11 → DFW 21:23AA 1868 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 8h 46m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON