Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1540 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1540 FLL 08:03 → SFO 11:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 277 FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1540 United Flight history →	FLL 08:03	SFO 11:01	9%	4%	0.7%	94%
B6 377 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:00	SFO 09:48	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	35%	18%	2.0%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874	55m St Louis	STL 08:15 → SFO 10:20WN 3982	7h 40m	96%	78%
United Details →	FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311	1h 03m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 04m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON