Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 753 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–44%.

Safest bet that day B6 753 FLL 06:40 → SJU 09:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 2153 FLL 20:50 → SJU 23:32 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 753 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:40	SJU 09:19	11%	4%	0.9%	87%
B6 1553 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:10	SJU 12:48	23%	8%	0.9%	60%
B6 1453 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:08	SJU 16:48	31%	12%	1.0%	71%
F9 3018 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:17	SJU 16:05	35%	17%	1.3%	57%
B6 153 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:25	SJU 19:09	36%	15%	1.7%	67%
B6 553 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 17:45	SJU 20:27	41%	15%	1.7%	85%worse than usual
B6 2153 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:50	SJU 23:32	44%	19%	3.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON