tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 57m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 45m Houston IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780 10h 03m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:55 → EWR 10:59UA 2330 3h 30m Newark EWR 14:29 → SNA 17:18UA 1350 12h 23m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:01 → DFW 09:16AA 2558 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 9h 30m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16AA 1232 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → SNA 10:48AA 2672 7h 47m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:14 → IAH 17:10UA 2724 3h 02m Houston IAH 20:12 → SNA 21:45UA 2761 9h 31m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 58m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → FLL 11:11 → EWR 14:15UA 210 2h 45m Newark EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06UA 1690 11h 55m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 8h 10m 71% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON