tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1874 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1874 Southwest Flight history → FLL 05:40 STL 07:20 4% 1% 0.7% 97%
WN 1875 Southwest Flight history → FLL 19:10 STL 21:00 32% 11% 1.1% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 20m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 32m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 8h 05m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 3h 05m Chicago MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901 7h 15m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 44m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:15 → MCI 07:15WN 1540 50m Kansas City MCI 08:05 → STL 09:10WN 2585 4h 55m 90% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700 5h 52m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752 1h 10m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 6h 09m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 15m Houston IAH 12:00 → STL 14:16UA 5397 · flown by SkyWest 8h 16m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 11:43 → DFW 13:55AA 1866 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → STL 16:28AA 2712 5h 45m 65% 45%
AmericanDetails → FLL 19:11 → DFW 21:23AA 1868 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:12 → STL 00:04 +1AA 3049 5h 53m 62% 43%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 20:10 → HOU 21:45WN 4583 55m Houston HOU 22:40 → STL 00:45 +1WN 2087 5h 35m 46% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON