Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 429 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 429 FLL 05:30 → TPA 06:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1905 FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 429 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:30	TPA 06:35	5%	1%	15.7%	94%
B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:35	TPA 16:46	38%	20%	17.7%	62%
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	39%	19%	15.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON