Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1237 at 05:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1237 Delta Flight history →	FSD 05:20	ATL 08:53	8%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FSD 05:00 → MSP 06:14DL 3840 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	5h 54m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	FSD 08:23 → MSP 09:30DL 1006	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	6h 59m	99%	85%
United Details →	FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Denver	DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424	8h 09m	98%	85%
American Details →	FSD 07:06 → ORD 09:05AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → ATL 14:57AA 4759 · flown by Republic	6h 51m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	FSD 10:56 → MSP 12:03DL 3561 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	7h 45m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	FSD 16:26 → MSP 17:37DL 3538 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032	6h 18m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	FSD 13:30 → MSP 14:44DL 3534 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026	7h 58m	98%	81%
United Details →	FSD 09:30 → DEN 10:16UA 2742	3h 10m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	8h 00m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON