Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3840 FSD 05:00 → MSP 06:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 3538 FSD 16:26 → MSP 17:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3840 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 05:00	MSP 06:14	7%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 3561 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 10:56	MSP 12:03	7%	3%	0.7%	98%
DL 1006 Delta Flight history →	FSD 08:23	MSP 09:30	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3534 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 13:30	MSP 14:44	9%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 3538 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 16:26	MSP 17:37	15%	5%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON