Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4952 FSD 07:06 → ORD 09:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4989 FSD 12:00 → ORD 13:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4952 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 07:06	ORD 09:05	15%	7%	1.0%	85%
UA 1857 United Flight history →	FSD 07:35	ORD 09:31	15%	4%	0.9%	80%
AA 4990 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 16:43	ORD 18:48	24%	12%	1.5%	61%
AA 4989 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 12:00	ORD 13:54	24%	10%	1.0%	59%
UA 4439 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	FSD 11:16	ORD 13:14	17%	9%	1.4%	83%
UA 4441 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	FSD 15:07	ORD 17:05	30%	12%	8.3%	70%
UA 4467 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	FSD 18:28	ORD 20:26	40%	20%	8.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON