Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6453 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 08:16	PHX 09:12	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 4991 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 14:15	PHX 15:10	23%	8%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FSD 05:00 → MSP 06:14DL 3840 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 43m	97%	86%
United Details →	FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481	5h 00m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	FSD 10:56 → MSP 12:03DL 3561 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 13m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	FSD 08:23 → MSP 09:30DL 1006	2h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	6h 23m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	FSD 05:20 → ATL 08:53DL 1237	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 43m	97%	82%
American Details →	FSD 06:00 → DFW 08:20AA 2880	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	7h 19m	99%	81%
United Details →	FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → PHX 15:19UA 455	9h 44m	100%	78%
United Details →	FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	7h 00m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON