Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3215 at 19:24, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3215 GEG 19:24 → BOI 21:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3215 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:24	BOI 21:38	11%	5%	0.5%	85%
AS 2031 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 08:53	BOI 11:02	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
AS 2198 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 06:00	BOI 08:07	4%	4%	7.7%	96%
AS 2264 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 16:05	BOI 18:13	25%	2%	1.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON