Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1333 GEG 06:00 → DEN 09:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1880 GEG 14:15 → DEN 17:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1333 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 06:00	DEN 09:10	4%	1%	0.5%	98%
UA 1234 United Flight history →	GEG 05:00	DEN 08:20	5%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 2786 United Flight history →	GEG 16:18	DEN 19:43	13%	4%	0.5%	71%
WN 859 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 11:50	DEN 15:05	15%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 1255 United Flight history →	GEG 13:41	DEN 16:57	16%	4%	0.5%	80%
WN 1880 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 14:15	DEN 17:30	18%	4%	0.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON