tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1782 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1782 Southwest Flight history → GEG 09:50 LAS 12:10 9% 2% 0.5% 85%
WN 1951 Southwest Flight history → GEG 17:10 LAS 19:35 22% 6% 0.5% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 1h 27m Portland PDX 07:37 → LAS 09:55AS 627 4h 55m 98% 87%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 1h 33m Seattle SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612 5h 22m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 3h 02m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00WN 1884 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → LAS 10:50WN 4543 5h 25m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 06:00 → DEN 09:10WN 1333 1h 50m Denver DEN 11:00 → LAS 11:55WN 1561 5h 55m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 58m Portland PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531 7h 30m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 41m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 10m Seattle SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905 7h 00m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GEG 19:07 → SFO 21:29UA 6042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → LAS 00:46 +1UA 2839 5h 39m 74% 51%
AmericanDetails → GEG 12:49 → DFW 18:34AA 1885 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771 7h 22m 75% 47%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 12:55 → SAN 15:35WN 1887 50m San Diego SAN 16:25 → LAS 17:50WN 4111 4h 55m 40% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON