tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 441 at 12:20, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 441 Southwest Flight history → GEG 12:20 OAK 14:30 15% 3% 0.5% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 41m Portland PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon 6h 41m 100% 97%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 99% 91%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 3h 19m Portland PDX 09:29 → OAK 11:21AS 3055 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → GEG 09:50 → SLC 12:41DL 4444 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 6h 31m 100% 91%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 15:16 → PDX 16:32AS 3202 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Portland PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon 6h 25m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 06:00 → DEN 09:10WN 1333 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577 6h 25m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00WN 1884 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → OAK 11:35WN 2680 6h 10m 96% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON