tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 11:09 ORD 17:00 20% 6% 0.8% 67%
AA 814 American Flight history → GEG 14:29 ORD 20:29 32% 6% 0.7% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 05m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 12:50 → ATL 20:19DL 787 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 9h 03m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 19:41 → PDX 20:50AS 2407 · flown by Horizon 2h 09m Portland PDX 22:59 → ORD 05:00 +1AS 376 7h 19m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → GEG 16:18 → DEN 19:43UA 2786 1h 22m Denver DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649 6h 26m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 2h 43m Denver DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085 7h 38m 96% 79%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324 6h 13m 93% 77%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 19m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 39m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GEG 19:07 → SFO 21:29UA 6042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 22:38 → ORD 05:01 +1UA 2278 7h 54m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON