Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 710 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day AS 710 GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 3202 GEG 15:16 → PDX 16:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 710 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 05:00	PDX 06:10	3%	1%	0.8%	97%
AS 3201 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 08:31	PDX 09:46	8%	3%	0.5%	98%
AS 251 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 12:42	PDX 13:52	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
AS 3202 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 15:16	PDX 16:32	16%	6%	0.5%	17%
AS 2407 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 19:41	PDX 20:50	22%	6%	1.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON