Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1884 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1884 GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1885 GEG 18:10 → PHX 20:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1884 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 05:25	PHX 08:00	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
AA 1789 American Flight history →	GEG 06:30	PHX 09:14	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 1888 American Flight history →	GEG 15:00	PHX 17:37	20%	10%	0.6%	72%
WN 1885 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 18:10	PHX 20:45	23%	9%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON