tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 673 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 673 Alaska Flight history → GEG 08:15 SAN 11:03 12% 2% 0.8% 90%
WN 1887 Southwest Flight history → GEG 12:55 SAN 15:35 39% 5% 0.6% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 48m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m Seattle SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572 8h 16m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:16 → LAX 19:10DL 3799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 05m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 7h 14m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202 6h 39m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 09:50 → SLC 12:41DL 4444 · flown by SkyWest 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SAN 15:56DL 1210 6h 06m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00WN 1884 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → SAN 10:35WN 1677 5h 10m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GEG 19:07 → SFO 21:29UA 6042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 5h 24m 72% 53%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon 56m Seattle SEA 16:45 → SAN 19:36AS 1348 4h 57m 61% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON