Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2218 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2218 GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 371 GEG 19:45 → SEA 20:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2218 Delta Flight history →	GEG 05:25	SEA 06:40	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 3790 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 07:00	SEA 08:22	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 279 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 06:13	SEA 07:24	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:30	SEA 12:54	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 4165 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:30	SEA 17:57	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:00	SEA 14:25	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 3830 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 09:27	SEA 10:55	15%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 17:37	SEA 19:01	18%	5%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
AS 3306 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 17:44	SEA 19:03	18%	5%	0.6%	86%
AS 364 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 07:23	SEA 08:34	22%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:59	SEA 21:22	23%	5%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
AS 293 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 13:26	SEA 14:40	35%	5%	0.7%	62%
AS 371 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 19:45	SEA 20:59	41%	6%	0.7%	45%
AS 2065 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 05:07	SEA 06:15	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AS 2262 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 11:40	SEA 12:50	8%	2%	3.8%	92%
AS 2069 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 09:06	SEA 10:18	21%	3%	0.9%	79%
AS 2119 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 14:39	SEA 15:49	35%	8%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON