Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5323 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 5323 GEG 06:00 → SFO 08:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 6042 GEG 19:07 → SFO 21:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 5% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 06:00	SFO 08:28	11%	6%	0.6%	86%
AS 3070 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:21	SFO 18:45	22%	10%	0.6%	86%
UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 12:37	SFO 15:01	23%	14%	0.6%	80%
UA 6042 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:07	SFO 21:29	30%	16%	0.6%	5%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON