tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 443 at 13:30, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 443 Southwest Flight history → GEG 13:30 SJC 15:40 15% 3% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 1h 05m Portland PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon 4h 09m 97% 89%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:31 → PDX 09:46AS 3201 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Portland PDX 11:45 → SJC 13:35AS 1632 5h 04m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 1h 50m Seattle SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 5h 30m 97% 86%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 52m Seattle SEA 07:07 → SJC 09:23AS 1448 4h 16m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → GEG 09:50 → SLC 12:41DL 4444 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 6h 14m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00WN 1884 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → SJC 11:35WN 3336 6h 10m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 7h 52m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → GEG 19:08 → SLC 21:55DL 1024 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 4h 31m 68% 56%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 13:26 → SEA 14:40AS 293 1h 02m Seattle SEA 15:42 → SJC 17:53AS 319 4h 27m 66% 45%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon 50m Seattle SEA 11:08 → SJC 13:20AS 335 4h 14m 64% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON