Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1440 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1440 GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1024 GEG 19:08 → SLC 21:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1440 Delta Flight history →	GEG 05:20	SLC 08:02	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 4444 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 09:50	SLC 12:41	4%	2%	0.5%	98%
DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	GEG 13:30	SLC 16:14	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	GEG 17:10	SLC 19:55	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1024 Delta Flight history →	GEG 19:08	SLC 21:55	14%	3%	0.6%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON