Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 367 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 367 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 05:00	SMF 06:50	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
WN 1890 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 17:30	SMF 19:25	20%	5%	0.5%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 08:31 → PDX 09:46AS 3201 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 02m	100%	90%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	2h 05m Portland	PDX 08:15 → SMF 09:48AS 485	4h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 56m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 34m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 09:50 → SLC 12:41DL 4444 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	6h 17m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:28 → SMF 09:26AS 682	4h 19m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00WN 1884	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781	6h 05m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 08:47 → SMF 10:50DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	GEG 19:07 → SFO 21:29UA 6042 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302	4h 52m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON