tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2019 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record GEG 15:35 SNA 18:19 54% 15% 0.0% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → GEG 05:00 → SMF 06:50WN 367 2h 10m Sacramento SMF 09:00 → SNA 10:30WN 3329 5h 30m 100% 91%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 15:16 → PDX 16:32AS 3202 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m Portland PDX 19:59 → SNA 22:30AS 518 7h 14m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 51m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37AS 1404 4h 37m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 3h 35m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 8h 20m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 03m Seattle SEA 08:18 → SNA 11:15AS 759 6h 08m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:00WN 1884 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 09:55 → SNA 11:15WN 3001 5h 50m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → GEG 06:00 → SFO 08:28UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m San Francisco SFO 10:25 → SNA 12:08UA 643 6h 08m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:31 → PDX 09:46AS 3201 · flown by SkyWest 52m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 4h 44m 54% 47%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 4h 49m 55% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON