Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6414 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 6414 GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4996 GJT 16:55 → DFW 20:19 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6414 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 06:26	DFW 09:50	7%	5%	0.8%	89%
AA 4918 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 10:56	DFW 14:17	13%	7%	0.7%	76%
AA 4996 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 16:55	DFW 20:19	21%	10%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON