Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1891 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1891 Southwest Flight history →	GRR 05:25	BWI 07:05	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1892 Southwest Flight history →	GRR 14:45	BWI 16:25	20%	4%	0.6%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	GRR 06:30 → MDW 06:40WN 1894	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	5h 15m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 51m	100%	89%
United Details →	GRR 07:15 → ORD 07:28UA 2137	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	6h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	6h 17m	96%	86%
United Details →	GRR 05:15 → ORD 05:32UA 5615 · flown by SkyWest	58m Chicago	ORD 06:30 → BWI 09:27UA 1269	4h 12m	91%	85%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	6h 41m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	6h 07m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	GRR 12:45 → MDW 12:50WN 1895	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	4h 40m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON