tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5301 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5301 American flown by PSA Flight history → GRR 06:00 DCA 07:48 13% 6% 1.3% 88%
AA 5200 American flown by PSA Flight history → GRR 14:03 DCA 15:59 27% 9% 1.3% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → GRR 06:30 → MDW 06:40WN 1894 1h 35m Chicago MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569 4h 40m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 17m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → GRR 05:15 → ORD 05:32UA 5615 · flown by SkyWest 2h 28m Chicago ORD 08:00 → DCA 11:01UA 382 5h 46m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:15 → ORD 07:28UA 2137 3h 47m Chicago ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668 7h 07m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → GRR 06:00 → ORD 06:07AA 2502 1h 53m Chicago ORD 08:00 → DCA 10:59AA 2345 4h 59m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 30m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 58m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:00 → LGA 08:04DL 5806 · flown by Republic 46m New York LGA 08:50 → DCA 10:15DL 5742 · flown by Republic 4h 15m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GRR 15:37 → ORD 15:56UA 4597 · flown by GoJet 1h 04m Chicago ORD 17:00 → DCA 20:10UA 456 4h 33m 67% 50%
UnitedDetails → GRR 11:38 → ORD 11:58UA 4583 · flown by GoJet 47m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 4h 14m 58% 48%
AmericanDetails → GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 35m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON