Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5806 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 5806 GRR 06:00 → LGA 08:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4418 GRR 13:16 → LGA 15:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5806 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 06:00	LGA 08:04	5%	3%	1.3%	92%
DL 5661 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 12:25	LGA 14:30	13%	6%	1.3%	73%
AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 13:16	LGA 15:20	16%	7%	1.2%	71%
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 17:56	LGA 20:00	33%	12%	10.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON