tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 3476 at 13:38, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 3476 Frontier Flight history → GRR 13:38 MCO 16:31 25% 10% 16.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → GRR 06:30 → MDW 06:40WN 1894 1h 20m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817 5h 05m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → GRR 05:15 → ORD 05:32UA 5615 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Chicago ORD 07:20 → MCO 11:15UA 2280 6h 00m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → GRR 05:25 → BWI 07:05WN 1891 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 08:05 → MCO 10:20WN 986 4h 55m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 40m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 50m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → GRR 06:01 → CLT 07:57AA 3230 2h 12m Charlotte CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074 5h 56m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:15 → ORD 07:28UA 2137 1h 44m Chicago ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643 5h 58m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic 2h 01m Newark EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739 6h 49m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → GRR 14:35 → DTW 15:38DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 1h 10m Detroit DTW 16:48 → MCO 19:48DL 1133 5h 13m 74% 47%
DeltaDetails → GRR 12:10 → DTW 13:13DL 5473 · flown by Endeavor 47m Detroit DTW 14:00 → MCO 16:46DL 337 4h 36m 68% 45%
UnitedDetails → GRR 11:38 → ORD 11:58UA 4583 · flown by GoJet 47m Chicago ORD 12:45 → MCO 16:43UA 1811 5h 05m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON