Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5615 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 5615 GRR 05:15 → ORD 05:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5516 GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5615 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 05:15	ORD 05:32	9%	7%	1.3%	87%
OO 5892 SkyWest	GRR 06:00	ORD 06:18	10%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 2502 American Flight history →	GRR 06:00	ORD 06:07	11%	5%	1.3%	70%
AA 6391 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 10:07	ORD 10:30	14%	8%	1.3%	86%
UA 2137 United Flight history →	GRR 07:15	ORD 07:28	17%	4%	0.9%	71%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 19:54	ORD 20:37	19%	8%	1.5%	67%
UA 5517 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 12:57	ORD 13:15	19%	9%	1.2%	84%
AA 3553 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GRR 14:35	ORD 14:54	21%	5%	1.7%	79%
UA 2138 United Flight history →	GRR 13:56	ORD 14:05	25%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GRR 17:36	ORD 18:00	26%	7%	2.0%	75%
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 18:25	ORD 18:48	29%	9%	1.4%	51%
UA 4583 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 11:38	ORD 11:58	27%	12%	2.2%	73%
UA 4597 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 15:37	ORD 15:56	36%	12%	7.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON