Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5494 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 5494 GRR 06:44 → PHL 08:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest G4 3490 GRR 14:57 → PHL 16:48 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5494 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 06:44	PHL 08:44	8%	5%	1.5%	91%
AA 5614 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 13:43	PHL 15:42	17%	7%	1.2%	74%
AA 5274 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 18:59	PHL 20:54	22%	8%	1.6%	47%
G4 3490 Allegiant Flight history →	GRR 14:57	PHL 16:48	31%	13%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON