Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1078 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1078 GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1895 GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1078 American Flight history →	GSO 05:16	CLT 06:09	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 3965 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:24	CLT 08:25	13%	3%	0.8%	96%
AA 2126 American Flight history →	GSO 19:50	CLT 20:53	21%	13%	0.7%	66%
AA 943 American Flight history →	GSO 14:46	CLT 15:49	23%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 1895 American Flight history →	GSO 18:39	CLT 19:45	26%	15%	0.7%	62%
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 09:00	CLT 10:21	8%	1%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 12:42	CLT 13:49	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 16:11	CLT 17:20	30%	13%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON