Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5252 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5252 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSO 10:24	DCA 11:46	13%	6%	1.4%	60%
AA 4514 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 15:27	DCA 16:48	25%	6%	0.8%	44%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	6h 02m	99%	88%
American Details →	GSO 06:00 → LGA 07:39AA 4578 · flown by Republic	1h 24m New York	LGA 09:03 → DCA 10:32AA 4393 · flown by Republic	4h 32m	98%	86%
American Details →	GSO 07:27 → ORD 08:45AA 3413 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	97%	86%
American Details →	GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33AA 1977	4h 17m	96%	84%
American Details →	GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA	5h 35m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:00 → DTW 07:45DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	6h 07m	99%	83%
American Details →	GSO 06:36 → DFW 08:38AA 3291	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	7h 23m	95%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GSO 16:11 → CLT 17:20AA 5797 · flown by Piedmont	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00AA 2386	3h 49m	71%	51%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:20AA 527	3h 41m	75%	51%
Delta Details →	GSO 18:32 → LGA 20:18DL 5439 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	4h 26m	51%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON