Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4578 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4578 GSO 06:00 → LGA 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 4421 GSO 18:18 → LGA 20:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4578 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 06:00	LGA 07:39	5%	2%	1.2%	86%
AA 4483 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 10:38	LGA 12:19	13%	4%	1.1%	63%
DL 5862 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 14:25	LGA 16:07	26%	9%	1.3%	75%
AA 4421 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 18:18	LGA 20:04	31%	15%	1.5%	58%
DL 5292 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 06:00	LGA 07:40	14%	8%	6.2%	86%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 10:00	LGA 11:36	15%	8%	5.4%	85%
DL 5439 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 18:32	LGA 20:20	53%	30%	30.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON