tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3640 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3640 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSO 07:02 MIA 09:10 11% 4% 1.6% 91%
AA 4082 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSO 19:37 MIA 21:44 42% 11% 2.6% 47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 32m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → GSO 06:15 → IAD 07:33UA 4251 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 20m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436 6h 21m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 27m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 5h 47m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → DTW 07:45DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 1h 37m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 28m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → GSO 06:00 → LGA 07:39AA 4578 · flown by Republic 1h 49m New York LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211 6h 45m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → GSO 09:00 → CLT 10:21AA 5793 · flown by Piedmont 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912 6h 38m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSO 17:29 → PHL 19:05AA 5518 · flown by PSA 50m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → MIA 23:09AA 1181 5h 40m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → GSO 15:27 → DCA 16:48AA 4514 · flown by Republic 52m Washington DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34AA 1612 5h 07m 73% 45%
AmericanDetails → GSO 14:46 → CLT 15:49AA 943 51m Charlotte CLT 16:40 → MIA 18:57AA 2231 4h 11m 62% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON