Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3413 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3413 GSO 07:27 → ORD 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3932 GSO 18:43 → ORD 20:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3413 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:27	ORD 08:45	7%	3%	1.2%	88%
AA 3744 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 14:49	ORD 16:04	19%	7%	1.3%	67%
AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 18:43	ORD 20:11	22%	7%	1.3%	81%
UA 4426 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 10:00	ORD 11:15	21%	15%	0.0%	79%
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 17:37	ORD 19:00	33%	24%	7.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON