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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5518 at 17:29, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5518 American flown by PSA Flight history → GSO 17:29 PHL 19:05 25% 12% 1.9% 54%
AA 5958 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record GSO 06:07 PHL 07:39 10% 5% 2.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 5h 32m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → DTW 07:45DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 46m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 49m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078 1h 46m Charlotte CLT 07:55 → PHL 09:41AA 3046 4h 25m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 5h 19m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → GSO 09:00 → CLT 10:21AA 5793 · flown by Piedmont 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 5h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 4h 48m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → GSO 18:35 → ATL 20:09DL 3050 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 24m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSO 14:46 → CLT 15:49AA 943 55m Charlotte CLT 16:44 → PHL 18:36AA 1838 3h 50m 71% 54%
DeltaDetails → GSO 19:02 → DTW 20:45DL 5514 · flown by Endeavor 50m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 4h 14m 63% 53%
AmericanDetails → GSO 16:11 → CLT 17:20AA 5797 · flown by Piedmont 52m Charlotte CLT 18:12 → PHL 20:12AA 2879 4h 01m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON