Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1899 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 08:30	BWI 09:55	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 4126 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 13:55	BWI 15:25	15%	3%	0.6%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 03m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	GSP 06:45 → ATL 07:48DL 1146	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 16m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 37m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 50m	98%	84%
United Details →	GSP 10:45 → ORD 11:59UA 5361 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → BWI 17:36UA 2124	6h 51m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	GSP 11:12 → DTW 13:04DL 5195 · flown by Endeavor	2h 01m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 29m	96%	83%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:35 → BWI 13:03AA 846	6h 03m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	GSP 11:42 → ATL 12:45DL 2158	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928	6h 41m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GSP 18:55 → DTW 20:48DL 5090 · flown by Endeavor	57m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	4h 23m	61%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON