Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5654 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5654 GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3422 GSP 19:30 → CLT 20:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5654 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 07:00	CLT 08:16	10%	5%	1.4%	89%
AA 5381 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 09:00	CLT 10:16	12%	5%	1.2%	90%
AA 5203 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 18:18	CLT 19:34	23%	8%	1.4%	42%
AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 19:30	CLT 20:40	25%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 6099 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 11:15	CLT 12:34	8%	4%	3.0%	92%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 12:39	CLT 13:53	10%	3%	0.0%	90%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 14:35	CLT 15:51	17%	7%	1.4%	83%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 16:07	CLT 17:23	27%	8%	1.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON