tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:03, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1866 United Flight history → GSP 16:15 DEN 17:55 14% 4% 0.6% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Greenville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GSP 17:10 → IAH 18:45UA 4038 · flown by Mesa 3h 25m Houston IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066 8h 47m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → GSP 06:10 → ORD 07:30UA 4728 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526 6h 21m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → GSP 06:30 → EWR 08:35UA 3700 · flown by Republic 3h 20m Newark EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999 9h 43m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 21m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876 3h 45m Detroit DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648 8h 35m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → GSP 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 4049 · flown by Mesa 1h 58m Houston IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409 7h 07m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → GSP 10:30 → IAD 12:08UA 4958 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 27m Dulles IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 7h 59m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → GSP 10:45 → ORD 11:59UA 5361 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Chicago ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 7h 46m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSP 19:30 → CLT 20:40AA 3422 · flown by Envoy 59m Charlotte CLT 21:39 → DEN 23:09AA 3156 5h 39m 73% 56%
DeltaDetails → GSP 18:55 → DTW 20:48DL 5090 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644 5h 49m 58% 45%
AmericanDetails → GSP 14:29 → PHL 16:29AA 6132 · flown by Piedmont 1h 01m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → DEN 19:45AA 3158 7h 16m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON